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Security Decision Science

Security Decision Science

Part 0 — Prerequisites

Part 0.1 — Stats 101
Probability Distributions – Expected Value and the Tails You’ll See
Monte Carlo Primer – When, Why, Sampling Pitfalls
Decision Theory: Expected Utility and Decision Trees
Behavioral Basics – Biases That Break Judgment
Optimization & MCDA — Weighted Scoring, Quick LP
Survival Analysis — Time-to-Event in Security
Causal Reasoning — From Correlation to “Why”

Part 1 — Decision Frameworks

Calculations vs Decisions in Security
Bayesian Thinking for Threat Intelligence
Value of Information for Security Decisions
The McNamara Fallacy in Security Metrics

Part 2 — Behavioral Traps

Confirmation Bias & Belief Perseverance in Incident Response
Normalization of Deviance – When Exceptions Become the Rule
Framing Effects in Risk Communication
Advocacy vs Inquiry – How Teams Make (or Break) Security Decisions

Part 3 — Causal & Strategic Reasoning

Measuring Control Effectiveness — Observation vs Experiment
Attacker-Defender Game Theory
Supply Chain Risk & Interdependent Security

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By Laura Voicu

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